Many election experts are saying that the 2020 Electoral College map won’t be the same as before. Here’s which states might flip and why.
Florida is the state that seems to sway most elections, most notably in 2000 when Vice President Al Gore lost to then-Governor of Texas George W. Bush because he lost the state by less than a thousand votes. However, in the 2018 midterm elections, voters in Florida voted to repeal the law that banned nonviolent ex-felons from voting. According to polls, the 2.7 million ex-felons that can now vote are overwhelmingly pro-Democrat, which means Florida might just go blue.
Texas. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign has invigorated and energized the state Democratic Party, and with the right candidate and a lot of campaigning Democrats might just win. Another way to win the Lone Star state is to enact voting rights reforms (polls show most of the people who give up on voting due to the law are Democratic). Also, numerous surveys found Texas to have the same voter demographics as California, a solid blue state, but due to the aforementioned voting laws, Texas remains red.
Wisconsin. When two-term Republican Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker lost to Tony Evers, the Democrats’ candidate, many had high hopes that the current voting laws would be repealed. However, the lame-duck Republican legislature has passed bills limiting the incoming Governor’s agenda. Also, in 2016, many thought Wisconsin might shift to red in upcoming elections, but they were proven wrong when Tony Evers defeated incumbent Scott Walker.
New Hampshire seems to be more red than a decade ago. This, proven by President Trump’s close loss there in 2016 and Governor Chris Sununu’s reelection, shows that voters might be going more conservative.
Nevada, which had previously been classified as a swing state and then as a ‘leans blue’ state, has completed its transition into ‘solidly Democratic’, after electing Jacky Rosen, a former Representative for Nevada’s 3rd District.
California, as always, will remain a blue state in the coming years. However, with the election of Democrats in Orange County –an island of red in a sea of blue– even that part of California is finally going blue. Of course, many would shrug at this if it were another county, since Democrats and Republicans go in-n-out of local government in other districts. The thing is, Orange County has not voted for anything except a Republican in decades.
Iowa. Locals seem to be more conservative in the last couple elections, and it looks as if it will continue its trend for the next Presidential election in 2020.
After Maine parted with the winner-take-all method in 1972, it looked like Republicans might start winning there more often. This was proven when President Trump won one out of four Electoral College votes there in 2016.
Michigan. Many thought that the midwestern state would go from blue to red in a single election cycle, but in the 2018 midterm elections they were proven wrong when Democrats coasted through most statewide elections. It seems as if Democrats will maintain a hold on Michigan, and probably win there in 2020.
Georgia. Even though Democrat Stacey Abrams lost the governor’s race there in 2018, many of her party’s strategists believe that the state’s blue voters are emboldened. They think they might see much higher turnout in Georgia, especially in Atlanta. Although they don’t expect a clear Democratic win, they are optimistic Georgia will be in play.
At the end of the day, there is no definite indicator of a shift to come until the shift comes. All we can do is speculate and try to anticipate.