China’s population to peak before embarking on rapid ‘unstoppable’ decline

A Chinese government report prepared by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reveals that China will peak in the year 2029 at 1.44 billion before embarking on an ”unstoppable” decline.

The Chinese report recommended immediate plans to prepare for a smaller workforce and an increasing elderly population.

China also faces other problems regarding population, including a higher population of males than females in the generation that encompasses adults in the age range of 20-30 years old. The cause of this problem is the One Child Policy that China repealed only recently. Since in Chinese culture, males are valued more than females, pregnant women often had abortions when they discovered their would-be child was a female, in order to try again and have a son. This, according to population experts, will account for the large number bachelors in China’s future. The effects have already started to become visible.

Human geographers, who study the branch of geography that studies human characteristics and their environment, have predicted similar scenarios in Japan and South Korea. They use a Demographic Transition Model, which involves the cruse birth rate (CBR), crude death rate (CDR), and natural increase rate (NIR). With the given information, they can predict future population trends. In Japan, where the soon-to-be-elderly outnumber the soon-to-be adults, there is real concern that Japan might not be able to take care of it’s elderly. Similar concerns were raised about South Korea.


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